We invite you to read the new article on Ideas de Peso, a blog where economists working at the BCRA share their opinions:
In our last year’s article, “REM foreseeing GDP figures”, we analyzed how the Market Expectations Survey (REM) allowed for anticipating the publication on Gross Domestic Product (GDP) estimations with a narrow margin of forecast error. This time, thanks to a wider forecast track record, we can confirm the accuracy of economic growth forecasts that survey analysts have provided.
In the case of the economy’s real activity level, the REM polls the analysts’ expectations on GDP’s annual average variations in constant currency. Moreover, the survey polls their expectations on the GDP’s seasonally adjusted (s.a.) quarterly percentage variation. For GDP growth, the REM provides expectations for 2017 as from June 2016 (first REM survey), with a total of 18 surveys. This enables us to analyze how such forecasts have evolved and to assess the formation of expectations regarding this variable, bearing in mind that the latest publication of the survey’s forecast anticipated—up to four months—the early and preliminary data on economic activity disseminated by the National Institute of Statistics and Censuses (Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Censos, INDEC).
March 26th, 2018