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Ensayos Económicos Journal No. 74

This journal is edited by the Economic Research Deputy General Management of the Central Bank of Argentina and its latest edition is posted here.

Contents of this edition:

GDP Nowcasting: Assessing Business Cycle Conditions in Argentina. By: Laura D'Amato, Lorena Garegnani, and Emilio Blanco.

Exports of Argentina and Brazil under the Generalized System of Preferences. By: Facundo Albornoz, Irene Brambilla y Pablo Garriga.

A Study of Excess Savings at the Firm Level in Developed Countries. Three Hypotheses about its Causes.. By: Rodrigo Pérez Artica, Lisana Martinez y Leandro Brufman.

Panel Time Series. A Review of Methodological Developments. By: Tamara Burdisso y Máximo Sangiácomo.

See Ensayos Económicos Journal No 74

You may find previous editions of Ensayos Económicos here.

More information on the articles

GDP Nowcasting: Assessing Business Cycle Conditions in Argentina

Updating business cyclical conditions is pivotal to take well-informed monetary policy decisions. Given that GDP figures are available with significant delay, central banks are increasingly resorting to Nowcasting as a useful tool for having an immediate perception of economic conditions. Thus, we develop a GDP growth nowcasting exercise using two approaches: bridge equations and factor models. Both models outperform a typical AR(1) benchmark's predictive ability. Moreover, the factor model Nowcast has a better predictive performance relative to the bridge equation methodology. Finally, following the Giacomini and White (2004) test we confirm that the difference in the accuracy to produce forecast is statistically significant.

Laura D'Amato, Lorena Garegnani y Emilio Blanco.

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Exports of Argentina and Brazil under the Generalized System of Preferences

In this paper, we explore the impact of the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) implemented by the United States on exports of Argentina and Brazil. Our evidence indicates that the GSP increased exports from these countries to the United States, both in export quantities (intensive margin) and the fact that a product is exported or not (extensive margin). However, the more advantageous the benefit is regarding the initial level of tariffs, the more important the effect will be. We also show that the cancellation of the GSP involves falls in exports. This finding indicates that the advantage conferred by the GSP does not manifest itself in competitive improvements that make redundant their existence. We also find that the products included in the GSP increase its exports in other destinations, especially in the OECD, a region with markets similar to that of the United States. This result suggests advantages associated with increased activity and experience in markets in advanced countries such as the United States. Finally, we note that the GSP promotes exports of goods favored at the expense of similar goods not included in the preferential access. This result reduces, at least partially, the pro-export GSP effect and evidences potential trade diversion, even for the same exporting country, these programs can generate.

Facundo Albornoz, Irene Brambilla y Pablo Garriga

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A Study of Excess Savings at the Firm Level in Developed Countries. Three Hypotheses about its Causes

We found a growing trend of net financial position and a drop in capital formation for a sample of industrial firms in Germany, France, Italy, Japan, and the United Kingdom in the period 1997-2011. Both trends are robust in different subsamples and to alternative measures of capital formation. We discuss three scenarios that help to explain these trends related to financial rationing, increased volatility of the operating environment and slowdown of business.

Rodrigo Pérez Artica, Lisana Martinez y Leandro Brufman

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Panel Time Series. A Review of Methodological Developments

The document focuses on the econometric treatment of macro panels, known in literature as panel time series. This new approach rejects the assumption of slopes’ homogeneity and handles nonstationarity. It also recognizes that the presence of cross-section dependence, i.e. some correlation structure in the error term between units due to the presence of unobservable common factors, squanders efficiency gains by operating with a panel. This led to a new set of estimators known in literature as Common Correlated Effect, which essentially consists of increasing the model to be estimated by adding the averages of the individuals in each time t, of both the dependent variable and the specific regressors of each individual. Finally, two Stata codes developed for the evaluation and treatment of the cross-section dependence are presented.

Tamara Burdisso y Máximo Sangiácomo

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December 27, 2016

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